Latest Articles

One Player’s Draft Journey: Tecnophi’s Drafting Stats

With the end of the current draft block of 2-2-1 soon, it’s time to look back at how I did in drafts up until now. From the very beginning when drafting was introduced to Hex, I have been keeping stats on the games I’ve played and how I did in each one.

There has been some discussion on tracking personal records in draft, and I thought it would be of interest to some that I share my own draft tracking methods. Here’s a peek at how the process works: I first set up a Google Form to allow me to easily input the data: Gametype, the Set(s) being drafted, and finally what place did I finish. Every time I start up a draft I load up the form to put in another data point. In the resulting spreadsheet format, it is easy to organize and manipulate the data—all that work to make pretty charts and plots.

ss+(2015-07-11+at+01.43.22)

 

So what does all the data say?

Dating back to May of 2014, I have played in a total of 228 drafts. I’m quite glad that my card collection is digital, because that is over 9000 cards drafted (the exact number is 10260). 457 best of 3 matches played, with a win percentage at a moderate 60.83%. Won a total of 471 booster packs, which would be equal to 94200 Platinum. To break even and “go infinite”, from the cards drafted the value needs be worth more than 42600 Platinum to make up the different. That translates to just ~4.16 Platinum a card, and if we consider on average drafting a rare or legendary 1 out of every 15 card drafted those need to be valued ~62.28 Platinum. Which is quite easy considering that chase rares and legendaries go for 1000 to 2000 Platinum.

image (2)

Now plotting my placements over time, there’s some very interesting trends that become very clear.

TecnophiChart1

When beta started, I played quite a bit and did quite well with 1-1-1 drafts the first 3 months or so. After that initial period, with all the excitement dying down my number of drafts played trended downwards. Then I got busy with travelling for work towards the end of 2014, and my drafts per month dropped basically down to the one free draft a week I have from the Kickstarter. My game time increased with the release of Shattered Destiny in December 2014, however my match-win percentage is slightly lower than before (~60% vs. ~62%). I fully expect that I will be playing a lot more drafts again when Set 3: Armies of Myth is released.

While my methods could easily be expanded to track how I’ve performed with the various draft archetypes, I personally prefer to avoid allowing past results inform my future draft habits. Unbiased drafting becomes impossible when you know where you’ve had success in the past, and this could lead you to making sub-optimal decisions based on your predispositions.

Tecnophi contributes in many different areas of FiveShards including the Twitch channel, 2 Turns Ahead guest appearances, occasional articles, and media content. Active in behind the scenes work related to the site. Can be contacted on Twitter: @Tecnophi.

2 Comments on One Player’s Draft Journey: Tecnophi’s Drafting Stats

  1. That’s a nice approach to stat tracking 🙂 I’ve gone the more detailed route, but have missed recording quite a few. Might give this simpler approach a try.

  2. Its even easier to go infinite then listed.

    Primal packs spawn at around 2%. On average 471 packs is giving you 9.42 primals. Depending on when you sell them, you can easily get 1700 platinum each after AH fees , so that’s 16,014 platinum added.

    Additionally earning 3 chests each draft. We’ll know soon enough how much they are actually worth, but its safe to say the answer is greater than zero.

    You could also add in the gold earned before the Frost Ring went live, but that’s obviously not an income source now.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: